Study Looks at Recent Votes in 6 California Cities; Odd-Year City Votes Could Hurt Minority Representation
BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA – A new study being released Monday suggests that holding municipal elections in odd years – as many California cities, including Los Angeles and San Francisco, do – inhibits voter turnout and may disadvantage African Americans, Asians and Latinos. Journalists can preview the report, “Off-Year vs. Even-Year Consolidated Elections in California,” now.
“Our analysis strongly suggests that holding local elections in odd years greatly reduces voter turnout, and almost certainly skews the makeup of the electorate,” said Greenlining Institute Claiming Our Democracy Director Michelle Romero. “One of the main reasons you hear for why cities hold elections in odd years is that voters lose interest in down-ballot local contests when there are so many issues on the ballot in even years, but our study found that down-ballot local issues still produce higher turnout when they appear on even-year consolidated ballots than even top-of-the-ballot issues do when they appear on odd-year ballots.”
Greenlining surveyed county election officials regarding their support for odd- or even-year elections and the reasoning behind their view. Greenlining then analyzed recent local elections in three pairs of cities: Los Angeles and San Diego, San Francisco and San Jose, and Lake Forest and Livermore — reviewing turnout and election cost per ballot in odd versus even years.
The even-year local elections had dramatically higher turnout rates. San Diego’s 2012 city general election, for example, drew over 69 percent of voters, while L.A.’s 2011 and 2013 general elections drew about 8 percent and 23 percent, respectively.
Cost per ballot cast also differed drastically between odd and even years. For example, San Jose spent $4.11 per ballot in its 2010 general election and $3.10 per ballot in 2012. Nearby San Francisco, with a similar number of registered voters, spent $20.21 per ballot in its 2011 general election. In 2012 – when voters cast ballots in several local races in addition to federal and state contests — San Francisco’s cost per ballot dropped to $13.77.
Contrary to fears expressed by some, the cities that combined local, state and federal elections in even years did not see a large drop-off in voting in local, down-ballot races. Many more votes were cast for these races when they were held in even years, as in San Jose, than in the odd-year elections.
“While further research is needed,” Romero said, “this analysis strongly suggests that holding municipal elections at the same time as state and federal elections brings more voters to the polls and cuts costs, while producing an electorate that better represents the population as a whole.”
