The 2024 Battle for the Black Vote: Polling, The Economy, and Civil Rights

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PHOTO: AI-generated using OpenAI's DALL-E

By Macy Meinhardt, Voice & Viewpoint 

So much is on the line for Black voters when it comes to the 2024 Presidential election. For some California voters, it’s an election of a lifetime. 

“Kamala Harris represents hope for the future. Voters are excited, Black leaders in California are excited. There’s just a lot of momentum and like hope around things changing and moving forward,” said LaGina Gause, Associate Professor of Race and Politics at University of California, San Diego. 

Three quarters, or 77% of Black voters say that they would vote for Harris if the 2024 presidential election were held today, according to the most recent polling survey conducted by Pew Research Center. 

Since announcing her run for president in place of Joe Biden in late July, Harris has widened the Democratic leverage in her home state of California by 25 points–yielding a 59% lead over opponent former President Donald Trump.

Harris is not only up to be the first woman in the presidential seat, but will also be the first woman of color. While this alone has led to an outpour of support and enthusiasm, Harris still has 67 days left on the campaign trail. Her ability to maintain montenum and  tap voters on the issues that matter to them the most will be key to getting folks to show up on election day.  

“Voters are hopeful, right? They’re excited, but she’s going to have to do a lot of work to convince people and maintain enthusiasm,” said Gause. 

Border security, immigration, abortion rights, healthcare access, crime, and education equity are top issues for Black voters. However, one issue Black Americans are specifically focused on in this year’s presidential candidate is how they will strengthen the economy. 

The Economy: 

“One hundred years later, the Negro lives on a lonely island of poverty in the midst of a vast ocean of material prosperity.” Martin Luther King, 1963

Wednesday, Aug. 28, marked 61 years since a quarter million people participated in the march for jobs and economic freedom at Lincoln Memorial, followed by Rev. King’s iconic, “I Have a Dream” speech. Six decades later, a comprehensive analysis conducted by FPWA, an anti-poverty organization, sheds light on persistent economic disparities Black Americans still face today. 

The report finds that the unemployment rate for Black Americans is 6.3% in 2024, almost double that of White workers, meanwhile the Black poverty rate is also 2X greater than White poverty rate, at 17.1%. 

Furthermore, the median White Family had $285,000 in wealth, whereas the median Black family had $44,890. With many Black families fighting to afford essentials such as food and housing, both Harris and Trump are fighting hard to convince voters that they have their best economic interests. 

“Donald Trump fights for billionaires and large corporations. I will fight to give money back to working and middle class Americans,” said Harris, at a Aug. 9th rally in North Carolina.

Meanwhile, during a June visit to a predominantly Black church in Detroit, Trump boasted that his administration “achieved the lowest African American unemployment rate and the lowest African American poverty rate ever recorded – ever, ever recorded – during my four years.”

Fact Check: Based on employment data that goes back to 1972, Biden met the record low for African American unemployment rate at 4.8% in April 2023. However, during Trump’s administration he did meet the record low for Black unemployment for that time which was 5.3% in August 2019. 

“Trump could have correctly said Saturday that, during his presidency, Black unemployment and Black poverty hit their lowest levels ever recorded as of that point. Instead, he deceptively portrayed records that have been bested under Biden as supposed evidence that he has done more for the Black community than Biden has,” CNN reporter Daniel Dale writes.

Trump’s performance in the polls among voters of color has gained notoriety. In a hypothetical poll conducted by Reuters, while 70% of Black voters support Kamala Harris over Former President Donald Trump,  12% of voters selected Trump over Harris. This percentage is the highest ever recorded Republican support from the Black vote. 

Janiyah Thomas, Director of Trump’s Black Media team, says that Trump’s established reputation as a businessman is an appeal specifically among Black men. 

“I think a lot of Black men are wanting to build generational wealth for their families, and I think they’re wanting to keep their families together. And I think that you see someone like Trump, who’s better than a businessman to run the country, you know? And I think that the economy is a big focus for a lot of people this year. And I think that that aspect about Trump has made him very appealing,” said Thomas. 

Civil Rights, Discrimination, Factoring Into Votes 

In a non-partisan poll conducted by the Highland Project in partnership with Cornell Belcher, a leading pollster and researcher in the field of Black politics, survey data shows that racism and discrimination are top issues for 94% percent of Black women. 

In an interview with national outlet, The Hill, Belcher shares: 

“Since the rise of Trump and Trumpism, African Americans, from a qualitative standpoint, talk about how he’s made it OK to be openly racist,” Belcher continued. “And so when you see this concern, this anxiousness, about racism and the rise of racism and the dangers and the threats that racism has to our communities, I think in many ways, [Vice President Harris] is the perfect antidote to that. Who better understands that and can speak to that and tackle that than Harris, who’s had to navigate that her entire life?,” said Belcher. 

Many of Trump’s brash comments have been interpreted as racist innuendos. For example, during the June 2024 Presidential Debate with Joe Biden, when asked a question about Black Voters feeling left behind, Trump responded by saying the “big kill on Black people” is linked to the border crisis, saying that immigrants are taking “Black Jobs.” 

About Those ‘Black Jobs’

Trump’s remark about Black jobs echoes the racist stereotype that employment for Black Americans is predominantly limited to low-skilled, labor-intensive work. As many note, ironically, Harris’ role as current Vice President of the United States, is said, Black job. 

“ I want to know – who’s going to tell him that the job he’s currently seeking might just be one of those ‘Black jobs’?” said Former First Lady Michelle Obama, during this year’s Democratic National Convention.

Despite the chaos and charades of this year’s 2024 election, one powerful testimony remains among Black voters, hope. 

Regardless of outcome, Gause says, Harris has “ already made history, not just by reaching the nomination, but in the way she’s running,  representing and changing people’s perspective, perspectives on things, and mostly for, you know, Black communities and the Indian community.”